The most popular iron ore fell below $80, and the

2022-07-24
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The blind import of iron ore below US $80 lights up the red light to reach the lowest value

the blind import of iron ore below US $80 lights up the red light to reach the lowest value

China Construction Machinery Information

falls below US $80, and the price of imported iron ore has reached a new low in the past five years. On September 23, the Platts price index of 62% iron ore dropped to $79.80, falling below $80 for the first time since September 2009. According to the statistics released by the Chinese customs a few days ago, the monthly average price of China's imported iron ore fell to $90.85/ton in August, the lowest since January 2010

wangguoqing, an analyst in the iron and steel industry, said that since the beginning of this year, the domestic iron ore price has been falling all the way. On the one hand, it is subject to the global oversupply of ore, but also closely related to the sluggish demand in China's iron and steel industry and the sharp decline in steel prices. In view of the current serious imbalance between global and domestic ore supply and demand, iron ore import prices may continue to fluctuate and fall in the fourth quarter

previously, China Iron and Steel Industry Association has "stopped" blind import of iron ore more than once. In a report released recently, CISA once again warned that the traditional expectation of "golden nine and silver ten" may not be realized in the current market environment. In addition, the possibility of blast furnace maintenance in some steel plants has increased. Relevant enterprises should take full account of both supply and demand of iron ore, control risks and reasonably arrange inventory

this year's decline exceeded 40%

according to public data, at the beginning of this year, the Platts' price index of 62% iron ore once reached $134.5/t. In September 2010, it once hit a high of $175/T. by July this year, it had fallen below $100. In August, the price continued to decline, constantly refreshing the lowest value since this year. According to this estimation, since the beginning of this year, the cumulative decline in the import price of mainstream iron ore has been close to 41%, and the cumulative decline over the past four years has exceeded 48%

an industry expert said that the reason for the continuous decline in iron ore prices this year is that the decline in the demand of downstream industries, including real estate, makes it difficult to be optimistic about the actual demand for steel, which leads to excess domestic steel supply, falling steel prices and deteriorating steel plant benefits. Although the profits of key iron and steel enterprises rebounded significantly in July, the sales profit margin was only 0.5%, which was still in an unhealthy state. In turn, the decline in steel prices also forced steel mills to lower the price of iron ore, thus forming a "vicious" cycle

according to the latest statistics released by CISA, on September 24, the CIF price of 62% grade directly imported iron ore was 79.62 US dollars/ton, a month on month decrease of 0.08 US dollars/ton or 0.1%; The average price of that month was 83.36 dollars/ton; The RMB tax inclusive price of imported iron ore in spot trade was 611.14 yuan/ton, down 0.03 yuan month on month, and the average price of that month was 629.61 yuan/ton. On September 24, China's iron ore price index was 287.56 points, a month on month decrease of 0.2 points or 0.07%. Among them, the price index of imported iron ore was 294.78 points, a month on month decrease of 0.3 points or 0.1%

the price of imported ore has been falling endlessly, and even the international ore giants who have previously adjusted the distance between the upper and lower plateaus and have been supporting the ore price have been unable to sit still. "At present, everyone is worried about the price of iron ore. as some analysts have pointed out, China's economy is changing from a heavy industry led stage to a consumption led stage. Does this mean that China's demand for iron ore will decrease?" A senior official of Vale said publicly recently

The early warning monitoring report on iron ore import jointly released by China Iron and Steel Industry Association and China Minmetals chemical import and Export Chamber of Commerce shows that in August this year, China's iron ore import licensing quantity and average price rose slightly to a balanced state, but the number of customs clearance decreased significantly. According to statistics, in August, the number of iron ore import licenses issued in China was 104.42 million tons, the amount was 9.42 billion US dollars, and the average price was 90 US dollars/ton; The number of customs clearance was 34.154 million tons, down 11.84% month on month, with an amount of US $3.122 billion. In the first eight months of this year, China issued a total of 829.957 million tons of certificates, amounting to US $88.7 billion, with an average price of US $106.9 per ton; Customs clearance totaled 558.68 million tons, amounting to US $61.47 billion

from the perspective of ore sea freight, the average import sea freight of iron ore import in August was USD 15.56/ton. Of which, Australia is 13.52 dollars/ton; Brazil 21.36 USD/ton; South Africa 17.29 yuan/ton. The average import sea freight from January to August is 15.68 USD/ton. Of which, Australia is 12 dollars/ton; Brazil $20.63/t; South Africa 18.36 USD/ton

as for the reasons for the significant decline in the number of iron ore customs clearance in August, the report analysis shows that the price of domestic construction steel has decreased by 25% in the form of cliff sweat absorption performance. In addition, the rebar futures have repeatedly hit new lows, paying more attention to the spread of market pessimism, the demand for raw materials such as iron ore has not improved significantly, and the imported iron ore has been hit by both demand and price, resulting in a significant decline in the number of customs clearance. From the perspective of customs clearance price, due to the downward consolidation of import mine price, 62% of the import mine price index hit the lowest since 2012 at the end of the month. At the same time, some low-cost non mainstream resources are subject to sales restrictions due to the sharp decline in prices, and low-cost resources tend to decrease. Therefore, the overall average customs clearance price has not changed significantly

Australia is still China's largest source of iron ore imports. In August, China issued 64.3365 million tons of import licenses from Australia, up 5.49% month on month, amounting to US $5.859 billion, with an average import unit price of US $91/ton; The quantity of customs clearance was 23.2356 million tons and the amount was 2.07 billion US dollars. From January to August, the cumulative number of licenses issued was 468.54 million tons, the amount was 50.19 billion US dollars, and the average import unit price was 107 US dollars/ton; The quantity of customs clearance was 324.11 million tons and the amount was 35.2 billion US dollars. According to the grade of imported iron ore, the contract quantity imported from Australia in August was 54.1242 million tons. Among them, 197200 tons of contracts with grade of 66% or above, with an average price of 102.8 US dollars/ton

in August, the number of import licenses issued from Brazil was 18.9325 million tons, down 16% month on month, with an amount of US $1.74 billion, and the average import unit price was US $92/ton; The quantity of customs clearance is 97.5 million tons and the amount is 427million US dollars. From January to August, the cumulative number of certificates issued was 1529, and the requirements became more and more strict. The quantity was 90000 tons, the amount was 17.3 billion dollars, and the average import unit price was 113 dollars/ton; The quantity of customs clearance is 97.5 million tons and the amount is 11.4 billion US dollars. The contract quantity imported from Brazil in that month was 12.782 million tons. Among them, the import of iron ore with grade of 66% or above is zero

in addition, in August, China issued 4312600 tons of import licenses from South Africa, up 26.77% month on month, with an amount of $400million and an average import unit price of $94/ton; The quantity of customs clearance is 1.97 million tons and the amount is 200million US dollars. From January to August, the cumulative number of licenses issued was 38.59 million tons, the amount was 4.5 billion dollars, and the average import unit price was 116.5 dollars/ton; The quantity of customs clearance was 28.55 million tons and the amount was 3.485 billion US dollars

the "golden nine silver ten" may fail

according to the data released by China Iron and Steel Industry Association, the daily output of crude steel of domestic large and medium-sized iron and steel enterprises in late August was 1676800 tons, a decrease of 152800 tons, a month on month decrease of 8.35%. The average daily output of crude steel in that month was 1704100 tons, a decrease of 94700 tons compared with the average daily output of the previous month, a month on month decrease of 5.26%. Moreover, the macro stimulus measures recently issued by the state have not significantly boosted market sentiment. The demand for replenishment of inventory by domestic steel mills is not strong. The increase in iron ore supply substantially exceeds the domestic demand for increasing production of steel-making pig iron, and the contradiction between supply and demand is further highlighted

it is worth mentioning that although the current iron ore price has fallen below the average cost of domestic mines, the willingness of domestic mines to reduce production is not obvious. Since this year, the number of domestic mines has continued to grow. There are special reasons behind the increase in production of domestic mines

"in recent years, most of the large mines put into operation in China are owned by steel mills, and most of the independent mines have a close relationship with steel mills, which is sticky in production. Under the condition that the operating rate of key large and medium-sized steel enterprises remains high, domestic mines naturally can not find reasons to reduce production." The above industry experts said. According to statistics, the daily average crude steel output of key iron and steel enterprises in the first ten days and the middle ten days of August was 1819900 tons and 1829500 tons respectively, up 3.59% and 0.53% month on month respectively

September and October of each year are the peak seasons of the steel market in the traditional sense, known as "golden nine and silver ten". However, in recent years, this title has become more and more untrue. CISA pointed out that the global economy continues to recover moderately, external demand continues to pick up, and the export volume of the steel industry may further increase. If the overall operating rate of blast furnace does not decrease significantly in September, the demand of downstream industries is difficult to improve significantly, and the traditional expectation of "golden nine and silver ten" will not be realized under the current market environment

at the same time, considering the increase of steel inventory and the decline of profitability in some steel plants, the possibility of blast furnace maintenance is still increasing. CISA suggests that relevant iron and steel enterprises should fully consider the supply and demand of iron ore, control risks and reasonably arrange inventory quantity

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